Naturally the result of the election in Zimbabwe is entirely predicable - a 'victory' by President Mugabe. But of course it is a hollow and dishonest victory, based on intimidation, fear and beatings. It is utterly meaningless, except to reveal the true character of the man who has been Zimbabwean President for 28 years.
He will, however, be seeking to confirm his victory so that he can parade his success at the next meeting in Egypt of African leaders. It will be for those leaders to give the lie to this man's skullduggery. It will be interesting to see how some of the African leaders stand up to this test of character.
Noticeably, our own Foreign Secretary and the Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice of the US have both condemned the 'sham' of this election process. Let us hope that other leaders will join in the chorus of those dissatisfied with Mugabe. The reality is that Mugabe needs the affirmation of other nations. It is to be hoped that he will not receive it.
Friday, 27 June 2008
Thursday, 26 June 2008
Simpatico
The latest developments in the presidential election in Zimbabwe must generate a mixture of emotions.
Firstly, there must be sympathy for the predicament of Morgan Tsvangerai in deciding how to react to the intimidation. He was not only at personal risk but also his supporters were receiving terrible beatings. His decision must have been very difficult and two edged. The downside being that for all effective purposes the MDC are damaged, perhaps fatally, as a credible opposition in Zimbabwe.
Secondly we must have sympathy for the plight of so many Zimbabweans at the hands of a brutal government. I understand that there are those who are receiving door callers demanding to know how they will vote. Others have been burned, beaten even killed. It is deplorable.
Thirdly, then there is frustration at the lack of action from other African leaders, particularly Mbeki. He has been silent and is therefore complicit. Nelson Mandela has at last spoken out, but too late and too little.
Fourthly, we see some reaction now from the UK government in withdrawing the knighthood of Robert Mugabe. Gordon Brown is intervening in cricket to add pressure. All these pressures are some sort of response. But it is too late and too little. The freezing of the assets of Zanu Party members held in Western banks is more likely to be a useful tool. I recall this was mentioned by Vince Cable a few weeks ago, and seems to have found favour with the FCO.
What will happen next in Zimbabwe? I think it is likely that Mugabe will continue in power. Over the coming years the situation in Zimbabwe will decline further meaning that many people starve. Ultimately it is to be feared that this will result in a civil war in the country. At which point, maybe, the UN will intervene. At the head of the UN force will be the UK and probably a British general will be in command of the Brigade. We have more dealings to look forward to in that country in future years, as the legacy of Mugabe's incompetence and inhumanity has to be undone.
Firstly, there must be sympathy for the predicament of Morgan Tsvangerai in deciding how to react to the intimidation. He was not only at personal risk but also his supporters were receiving terrible beatings. His decision must have been very difficult and two edged. The downside being that for all effective purposes the MDC are damaged, perhaps fatally, as a credible opposition in Zimbabwe.
Secondly we must have sympathy for the plight of so many Zimbabweans at the hands of a brutal government. I understand that there are those who are receiving door callers demanding to know how they will vote. Others have been burned, beaten even killed. It is deplorable.
Thirdly, then there is frustration at the lack of action from other African leaders, particularly Mbeki. He has been silent and is therefore complicit. Nelson Mandela has at last spoken out, but too late and too little.
Fourthly, we see some reaction now from the UK government in withdrawing the knighthood of Robert Mugabe. Gordon Brown is intervening in cricket to add pressure. All these pressures are some sort of response. But it is too late and too little. The freezing of the assets of Zanu Party members held in Western banks is more likely to be a useful tool. I recall this was mentioned by Vince Cable a few weeks ago, and seems to have found favour with the FCO.
What will happen next in Zimbabwe? I think it is likely that Mugabe will continue in power. Over the coming years the situation in Zimbabwe will decline further meaning that many people starve. Ultimately it is to be feared that this will result in a civil war in the country. At which point, maybe, the UN will intervene. At the head of the UN force will be the UK and probably a British general will be in command of the Brigade. We have more dealings to look forward to in that country in future years, as the legacy of Mugabe's incompetence and inhumanity has to be undone.
Sunday, 8 June 2008
Intimidation
The run-up to the presidential elections has been as horrendous as many people feared it would be. Zanu are using the most brutal intimidation to hold on to power. Meanwhile, Robert Mugabe is parading peacock-like in the Rome meeting utterly defiant in his incompetence. He has become a brutal monster. Now 4 million people rely on food aid in Zimbabwe. Yet Mugabe keeps on with the tired old rhetoric about the UK and our co-conspirators doing evil to Zimbabwe.
Today has brought three conversations on Zimbabwe:
The first was with a Zimbabwean national now working in the UK. I will call him 'Tsingi' (that is not his real name). Tsingi believes that the only way out of the crisis is by military intervention to ensure that free and fair elections are held. That is the minimum option in his view. But there seems very little prospect of that materialising either by concerned action by local nations, or by concerted action by the UN. To those liberals in the UK who are squeamish about military intervention I would simply point out that this is his view, and he is a well educated professional man working in the UK in a respected role. Personally I doubt whether the UK have sufficient military resources to mount this kind of enterprise. It would be an unthinkable operation without the support of South Africa. South Africa are as quiet as ever.
The second was with a friend. He had heard that an MDC supporter has had his tongue cut out, his eyes gouged out and finally he has been beaten to death for his opposition to Zanu. If so, let no-one be in any doubt about the true character of Zanu.
One interesting development may come from the backlash for the beating of UK and US diplomats on the road out of Harare. I doubt the UK will do much about that, but I heard on Friday that Condoleeza Rice is seeking to make representations to the UN in New York about that incident. I personally doubt that was done on the orders of Robert Mugabe, but it is possible it may be an event that he yet will come to regret.
Today has brought three conversations on Zimbabwe:
The first was with a Zimbabwean national now working in the UK. I will call him 'Tsingi' (that is not his real name). Tsingi believes that the only way out of the crisis is by military intervention to ensure that free and fair elections are held. That is the minimum option in his view. But there seems very little prospect of that materialising either by concerned action by local nations, or by concerted action by the UN. To those liberals in the UK who are squeamish about military intervention I would simply point out that this is his view, and he is a well educated professional man working in the UK in a respected role. Personally I doubt whether the UK have sufficient military resources to mount this kind of enterprise. It would be an unthinkable operation without the support of South Africa. South Africa are as quiet as ever.
The second was with a friend. He had heard that an MDC supporter has had his tongue cut out, his eyes gouged out and finally he has been beaten to death for his opposition to Zanu. If so, let no-one be in any doubt about the true character of Zanu.
One interesting development may come from the backlash for the beating of UK and US diplomats on the road out of Harare. I doubt the UK will do much about that, but I heard on Friday that Condoleeza Rice is seeking to make representations to the UN in New York about that incident. I personally doubt that was done on the orders of Robert Mugabe, but it is possible it may be an event that he yet will come to regret.
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