Naturally the result of the election in Zimbabwe is entirely predicable - a 'victory' by President Mugabe. But of course it is a hollow and dishonest victory, based on intimidation, fear and beatings. It is utterly meaningless, except to reveal the true character of the man who has been Zimbabwean President for 28 years.
He will, however, be seeking to confirm his victory so that he can parade his success at the next meeting in Egypt of African leaders. It will be for those leaders to give the lie to this man's skullduggery. It will be interesting to see how some of the African leaders stand up to this test of character.
Noticeably, our own Foreign Secretary and the Secretary of State Condoleeza Rice of the US have both condemned the 'sham' of this election process. Let us hope that other leaders will join in the chorus of those dissatisfied with Mugabe. The reality is that Mugabe needs the affirmation of other nations. It is to be hoped that he will not receive it.
Friday, 27 June 2008
Thursday, 26 June 2008
Simpatico
The latest developments in the presidential election in Zimbabwe must generate a mixture of emotions.
Firstly, there must be sympathy for the predicament of Morgan Tsvangerai in deciding how to react to the intimidation. He was not only at personal risk but also his supporters were receiving terrible beatings. His decision must have been very difficult and two edged. The downside being that for all effective purposes the MDC are damaged, perhaps fatally, as a credible opposition in Zimbabwe.
Secondly we must have sympathy for the plight of so many Zimbabweans at the hands of a brutal government. I understand that there are those who are receiving door callers demanding to know how they will vote. Others have been burned, beaten even killed. It is deplorable.
Thirdly, then there is frustration at the lack of action from other African leaders, particularly Mbeki. He has been silent and is therefore complicit. Nelson Mandela has at last spoken out, but too late and too little.
Fourthly, we see some reaction now from the UK government in withdrawing the knighthood of Robert Mugabe. Gordon Brown is intervening in cricket to add pressure. All these pressures are some sort of response. But it is too late and too little. The freezing of the assets of Zanu Party members held in Western banks is more likely to be a useful tool. I recall this was mentioned by Vince Cable a few weeks ago, and seems to have found favour with the FCO.
What will happen next in Zimbabwe? I think it is likely that Mugabe will continue in power. Over the coming years the situation in Zimbabwe will decline further meaning that many people starve. Ultimately it is to be feared that this will result in a civil war in the country. At which point, maybe, the UN will intervene. At the head of the UN force will be the UK and probably a British general will be in command of the Brigade. We have more dealings to look forward to in that country in future years, as the legacy of Mugabe's incompetence and inhumanity has to be undone.
Firstly, there must be sympathy for the predicament of Morgan Tsvangerai in deciding how to react to the intimidation. He was not only at personal risk but also his supporters were receiving terrible beatings. His decision must have been very difficult and two edged. The downside being that for all effective purposes the MDC are damaged, perhaps fatally, as a credible opposition in Zimbabwe.
Secondly we must have sympathy for the plight of so many Zimbabweans at the hands of a brutal government. I understand that there are those who are receiving door callers demanding to know how they will vote. Others have been burned, beaten even killed. It is deplorable.
Thirdly, then there is frustration at the lack of action from other African leaders, particularly Mbeki. He has been silent and is therefore complicit. Nelson Mandela has at last spoken out, but too late and too little.
Fourthly, we see some reaction now from the UK government in withdrawing the knighthood of Robert Mugabe. Gordon Brown is intervening in cricket to add pressure. All these pressures are some sort of response. But it is too late and too little. The freezing of the assets of Zanu Party members held in Western banks is more likely to be a useful tool. I recall this was mentioned by Vince Cable a few weeks ago, and seems to have found favour with the FCO.
What will happen next in Zimbabwe? I think it is likely that Mugabe will continue in power. Over the coming years the situation in Zimbabwe will decline further meaning that many people starve. Ultimately it is to be feared that this will result in a civil war in the country. At which point, maybe, the UN will intervene. At the head of the UN force will be the UK and probably a British general will be in command of the Brigade. We have more dealings to look forward to in that country in future years, as the legacy of Mugabe's incompetence and inhumanity has to be undone.
Sunday, 8 June 2008
Intimidation
The run-up to the presidential elections has been as horrendous as many people feared it would be. Zanu are using the most brutal intimidation to hold on to power. Meanwhile, Robert Mugabe is parading peacock-like in the Rome meeting utterly defiant in his incompetence. He has become a brutal monster. Now 4 million people rely on food aid in Zimbabwe. Yet Mugabe keeps on with the tired old rhetoric about the UK and our co-conspirators doing evil to Zimbabwe.
Today has brought three conversations on Zimbabwe:
The first was with a Zimbabwean national now working in the UK. I will call him 'Tsingi' (that is not his real name). Tsingi believes that the only way out of the crisis is by military intervention to ensure that free and fair elections are held. That is the minimum option in his view. But there seems very little prospect of that materialising either by concerned action by local nations, or by concerted action by the UN. To those liberals in the UK who are squeamish about military intervention I would simply point out that this is his view, and he is a well educated professional man working in the UK in a respected role. Personally I doubt whether the UK have sufficient military resources to mount this kind of enterprise. It would be an unthinkable operation without the support of South Africa. South Africa are as quiet as ever.
The second was with a friend. He had heard that an MDC supporter has had his tongue cut out, his eyes gouged out and finally he has been beaten to death for his opposition to Zanu. If so, let no-one be in any doubt about the true character of Zanu.
One interesting development may come from the backlash for the beating of UK and US diplomats on the road out of Harare. I doubt the UK will do much about that, but I heard on Friday that Condoleeza Rice is seeking to make representations to the UN in New York about that incident. I personally doubt that was done on the orders of Robert Mugabe, but it is possible it may be an event that he yet will come to regret.
Today has brought three conversations on Zimbabwe:
The first was with a Zimbabwean national now working in the UK. I will call him 'Tsingi' (that is not his real name). Tsingi believes that the only way out of the crisis is by military intervention to ensure that free and fair elections are held. That is the minimum option in his view. But there seems very little prospect of that materialising either by concerned action by local nations, or by concerted action by the UN. To those liberals in the UK who are squeamish about military intervention I would simply point out that this is his view, and he is a well educated professional man working in the UK in a respected role. Personally I doubt whether the UK have sufficient military resources to mount this kind of enterprise. It would be an unthinkable operation without the support of South Africa. South Africa are as quiet as ever.
The second was with a friend. He had heard that an MDC supporter has had his tongue cut out, his eyes gouged out and finally he has been beaten to death for his opposition to Zanu. If so, let no-one be in any doubt about the true character of Zanu.
One interesting development may come from the backlash for the beating of UK and US diplomats on the road out of Harare. I doubt the UK will do much about that, but I heard on Friday that Condoleeza Rice is seeking to make representations to the UN in New York about that incident. I personally doubt that was done on the orders of Robert Mugabe, but it is possible it may be an event that he yet will come to regret.
Friday, 23 May 2008
Elections
I apologise for the long delay between posts. Movement continues in Zimbabwe as the run-off of the Presidential Elections approaches.
It is clear that there is a widespread campaign of intimidation against the MDC and those who are considered subject to pressure in the run-up to the elections. Pictures have been received this week of some of the injuries received by those in Zimbabwe who are not fully aligned with the Zanu position.
It appears that there may have been some sort of intervention by South Africa leading to the re-run but increasingly it appears that the elections are subject to terrible pressure and intimidation tactics. It will be a pyrrhic victory for Mugabe, but it will allow him and his cronies to continue their incompetent rule of Zimbabwe.
Mugabe's reaction at all times is to blame the British, who it appears are at fault for the economic mismanagement of his country, and are to blame for all other faults. The poor of Zimbabwe are now also feeling the resentment of the people of South Africa as they seek to escape the terrors of the Mugable regime.
The question is - centrally - what are we to do? It appears for Christian people the most effective weapon is prayer. Prayer for a return to just and democractic government in Zimbabwe. Prayer for the death of Robert Mugabe.
It is clear that there is a widespread campaign of intimidation against the MDC and those who are considered subject to pressure in the run-up to the elections. Pictures have been received this week of some of the injuries received by those in Zimbabwe who are not fully aligned with the Zanu position.
It appears that there may have been some sort of intervention by South Africa leading to the re-run but increasingly it appears that the elections are subject to terrible pressure and intimidation tactics. It will be a pyrrhic victory for Mugabe, but it will allow him and his cronies to continue their incompetent rule of Zimbabwe.
Mugabe's reaction at all times is to blame the British, who it appears are at fault for the economic mismanagement of his country, and are to blame for all other faults. The poor of Zimbabwe are now also feeling the resentment of the people of South Africa as they seek to escape the terrors of the Mugable regime.
The question is - centrally - what are we to do? It appears for Christian people the most effective weapon is prayer. Prayer for a return to just and democractic government in Zimbabwe. Prayer for the death of Robert Mugabe.
Thursday, 27 September 2007
Ownership Changes
I noticed on Ceefax last night that a very significant news story leaked out about Zimbabwe. Naturally the serious situation in Burma is now receiving the most attention from the news.
It seems that Zanu have passed a law requiring all businesses to have a controlling 51% shareholding by a black Zimbabwean. In practice, of course this will mean a 51% interest by a Zanu-PF party member or chroney.
The result of this will be that those large agro and mineral companies with holdings still in Zimbabwe will withdraw. And, the main boards of such bodies are unlikely to be willing to sponsor inward investment to the country in the future, where there is a controlling interest in the local operating company which is directed by Zanu. The consequence will be a further decline in the manufacturing and raw material producing base of the Zimbabwean economy. It may very well also lead to the withdrawl of capital from the country.
Last week's TV documentary contained a segment on Zanu grabbing property. It seems that in fact Zanu are going after capital.
It seems that Zanu have passed a law requiring all businesses to have a controlling 51% shareholding by a black Zimbabwean. In practice, of course this will mean a 51% interest by a Zanu-PF party member or chroney.
The result of this will be that those large agro and mineral companies with holdings still in Zimbabwe will withdraw. And, the main boards of such bodies are unlikely to be willing to sponsor inward investment to the country in the future, where there is a controlling interest in the local operating company which is directed by Zanu. The consequence will be a further decline in the manufacturing and raw material producing base of the Zimbabwean economy. It may very well also lead to the withdrawl of capital from the country.
Last week's TV documentary contained a segment on Zanu grabbing property. It seems that in fact Zanu are going after capital.
Sunday, 23 September 2007
Its been quite a week
The situation in Zimbabwe has received a great deal of media attention in the last week. Various news reports on TV from ITN and BBC, plus writing press, even a statement from the Archbishop of York.
Let's examine some of the suggestions and proposals:
Gordon Brown has suggested that sanctions against Zimbabwe, and has declined to go to the African Summit if Mugabe is there. I am not persauded that sanctions against an already desperately poor country are the optimal policy, though the international community may well be left with nothing else. Clearly any such moves must be led by other African nations. Refusal to participate in meetings involving Mugabe and to widen the circle of prescribed persons is a good move. It is necessary to get that message communicated into the interior of the country since most Zimbabweans have no idea that other countries are doing this. Support of other African nations is critical.
Possibly South Africa are using Zimbabwe as cover for their own growing crisis. And SA are gaining from the brain drain from Zim into SA. In truth of course the UK are also gaining in the same way (see todays Mail on Sunday). For these reasons, plus solidarity with old ANC and Zanu campaigners there will be little heard from ANC leaders in SA.
It may also be that western money is behind Zimbabwe supporting him covertly while other interests are gaining, possibly in the mining sector or other mineral producers either in Zim or nearby nations. It would be interesting to know more about the situation in DRC and Mozambique to see whether there are any operations hosted out of those countries that are based in Zim.
The Archbishop of York John Sentamu has gone on record about Zimbabwe. I welcome the fact that he has spoken. The fact that he criticised PM Brown for being too moderate seems a little strange. ++John's view seems to be that military intervention may be required. In the end, he may well be right...in order to feed the populace as part of a humanitarian intervention.
But again it would be necessary to obtain the support of other African governments and preferably the UN before tasking the armed forces. The idea of the UK mounting any military operation is fantastic - we do not have the resources (all over committed in Afghanistan and Iraq already) and there is certainly no political will to entertain such action in the UK polity.
Perhaps the worst of all possibilities remains - the situation in Zimbabwe has a long way to run down before it recovers. A colleague this week told me that Mugabe has now claimed the right to name his succcessor. As Brett put it - normally one speaks of "where there is death there is hope" but with this move that doctrine is in question. A successor chosen by Mugabe - incompetent, corrupt, venial, grasping and evil - are words that come easily to mind.
The question is:- what do we do to help and support people in Zimbabwe?
Let's examine some of the suggestions and proposals:
Gordon Brown has suggested that sanctions against Zimbabwe, and has declined to go to the African Summit if Mugabe is there. I am not persauded that sanctions against an already desperately poor country are the optimal policy, though the international community may well be left with nothing else. Clearly any such moves must be led by other African nations. Refusal to participate in meetings involving Mugabe and to widen the circle of prescribed persons is a good move. It is necessary to get that message communicated into the interior of the country since most Zimbabweans have no idea that other countries are doing this. Support of other African nations is critical.
Possibly South Africa are using Zimbabwe as cover for their own growing crisis. And SA are gaining from the brain drain from Zim into SA. In truth of course the UK are also gaining in the same way (see todays Mail on Sunday). For these reasons, plus solidarity with old ANC and Zanu campaigners there will be little heard from ANC leaders in SA.
It may also be that western money is behind Zimbabwe supporting him covertly while other interests are gaining, possibly in the mining sector or other mineral producers either in Zim or nearby nations. It would be interesting to know more about the situation in DRC and Mozambique to see whether there are any operations hosted out of those countries that are based in Zim.
The Archbishop of York John Sentamu has gone on record about Zimbabwe. I welcome the fact that he has spoken. The fact that he criticised PM Brown for being too moderate seems a little strange. ++John's view seems to be that military intervention may be required. In the end, he may well be right...in order to feed the populace as part of a humanitarian intervention.
But again it would be necessary to obtain the support of other African governments and preferably the UN before tasking the armed forces. The idea of the UK mounting any military operation is fantastic - we do not have the resources (all over committed in Afghanistan and Iraq already) and there is certainly no political will to entertain such action in the UK polity.
Perhaps the worst of all possibilities remains - the situation in Zimbabwe has a long way to run down before it recovers. A colleague this week told me that Mugabe has now claimed the right to name his succcessor. As Brett put it - normally one speaks of "where there is death there is hope" but with this move that doctrine is in question. A successor chosen by Mugabe - incompetent, corrupt, venial, grasping and evil - are words that come easily to mind.
The question is:- what do we do to help and support people in Zimbabwe?
Friday, 14 September 2007
BBC Coverage
The coverage of the situation inside by Sue Lloydd-Roberts last night on the News at Ten and Newsnight was outstanding. The situation inside Zim is grim. The leadership of the country is deeply at fault. It appears that the complicity of South Africa in this matter is based on a win/win - as skilled people leave Zim they go to SA. SA is booming and needs their skills.
Kenneth Kowunda long ago said to Robert Mugabe that he had a jewel and he should be sure to keep is that way. Mugabe and his chronies are deeply to blame for what has occurred and is occurring. And, it may not yet be the end of the road. A slow decline over another twenty years is entirely possible. Though it is to be hoped that Mugabe will not last that long.
The key question, for us, is however what are we to do? Should Africa solve Africa's problems? Many inside Zim are now looking outside for help.
Kenneth Kowunda long ago said to Robert Mugabe that he had a jewel and he should be sure to keep is that way. Mugabe and his chronies are deeply to blame for what has occurred and is occurring. And, it may not yet be the end of the road. A slow decline over another twenty years is entirely possible. Though it is to be hoped that Mugabe will not last that long.
The key question, for us, is however what are we to do? Should Africa solve Africa's problems? Many inside Zim are now looking outside for help.
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